TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 2:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for a specific future date, categorizing outcomes into various price ranges. It reflects market expectations and economic indicators influencing oil pricing dynamics without focusing on specific market structures or participant counts.
The event resolves based on the daily settlement price of the WTI crude oil September 2026 contract on August 14, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, with one market resolving to Yes if the price falls within its designated range. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places for resolution. If pricing data is unavailable on the specified date, the most recent published data is used instead. The ranges progress from below $66.00 USD per barrel through successive $1.00 increments up to $90.99, with the final market resolving to Yes for any price above $90.99 USD per barrel.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term supply-demand models and geopolitical risk assessments, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, inventory reports, and policy shifts. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from institutional outlooks, especially ahead of key economic announcements or supply disruptions.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including inventory reports from major agencies, unexpected outages in key production regions, and policy moves by oil-exporting cartels. Geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions to shipping routes, and shifts in global demand — especially from major consuming nations — also frequently influence trader sentiment. Each new data point may cause rapid repricing as participants revise their expectations for the August 2026 WTI settlement.