TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Ohio Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Ohio Senate election?

Total volume:
$8,007,722
Volume 24h:
$69,904
5%
Liquidity:
$578,540
7%
Open interest:
$4,925,574
0.45%

Sherrod Brown (D)

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:25m

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

62%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 63.2¢ buys you 158 shares | Odds: 62% Total Payout: $158 | Net Profit: $58 Multiplier: 1.58x | ROI: 58% APY not meaningful 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Sherrod Brown (D)

Trade
62%
Yes 63.2¢No 40¢
3.2¢
$63,721
$1,372
0%
0.44%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
62%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
$228,785
$718,372
2%
13%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
60%
Yes 60¢No 41¢
1¢
N/A
$3,476,776
1%
11%
$2,529,960
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
60.3%
Yes 61.7¢No 40¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3.2¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
41%
Yes 41¢No 60¢
1¢
N/A
$3,342,960
0.34%
16%
$2,395,614
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
39%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
$241,842
$465,216
0.04%
5%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Jon Husted (R)

Trade
39%
Yes 39.9¢No 63¢
2.9¢
$44,191
$3,027
0%
4%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40.7%
Yes 40¢No 61.7¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2.9¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate election, specifically whether the Democratic party will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict is 61.6% that Democrats will win, with Republicans currently at 41%. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). Traders should watch the results of the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026, as they will significantly shape the competitive landscape leading up to the general election and our resolution date estimate of January 4, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving the market based on the winner of the 2026 Ohio Senate election, using the same primary resolution sources and handling of independent candidates.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate election.
  • The winner is determined by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus is reached, the official certification will be used.
  • Candidates running as independents are not considered part of the Democratic or Republican options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner.
  • Runoff Election: The market will resolve based on the winner of any runoff election that occurs.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets referencing that candidate will likely be cancelled or adjusted, depending on platform policy.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes if either a Republican or Democratic party representative assumes the office, with each party having a separate market outcome.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate prediction of who will win the Ohio Senate election. It combines trading volume of over $8,007,706 and 24-hour volume reaching $67,024 across both venues to give a consensus view. Currently, Polymarket shows Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? at 61.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio? at 60.0%. This allows for a more comprehensive understanding of expectations than any single platform could provide.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by biases or strategic responses, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be accurate. However, both sources of information can be valuable when assessing the likely result of the Ohio Senate election, and it’s common to see correlations between the two over time.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of available information. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders, resulting in more efficient pricing. Additionally, differing levels of volume on each platform can cause temporary discrepancies. These differences aren't necessarily contradictions, but rather reflect the independent assessment of probabilities by each market's participants.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Ohio Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official election results as certified by the relevant authorities. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified outcome of the election. This market provides a way to forecast the election result and profit from accurate predictions.

Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, debates, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all shift perceptions and alter trading activity. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions could also influence the outcome. Polling data releases, while often already factored into prices, can still cause short-term volatility. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of either candidate winning the Ohio Senate election has the potential to move this market.