TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.7b

24H VOL:

$162,970,420

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,740,912,349

501,518

Markets across

37,286

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,933

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Ohio Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Ohio Governor election?

Total volume:
$4,514,534
Volume 24h:
$493,135
26%
Liquidity:
$419,193
38%
Open interest:
$2,437,856
9%

Amy Acton (D)

 - Predict

Amy Acton (D) - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 14, 2027

Time left: 12d:10h:04m

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 82.9¢ buys you 121 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $121 | Net Profit: $21 Multiplier: 1.21x | ROI: 21% APY not meaningful 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Amy Acton (D)

Trade
81%
3%
Yes 82.9¢No 21¢
3.9¢
$52,813
$2,093
0%
0%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
81%
Yes 81¢No 20¢
1¢
$145,304
$406,376
23%
79%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
80%
3%
Yes 80¢No 21¢
1¢
N/A
$1,460,209
11%
34%
$994,401
2mo 3w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
80.1%
Yes 80.5¢No 20.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
20%
5%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$2,249,323
7%
53%
$1,443,454
2mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
20%
2%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
$171,665
$396,222
47%
106%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.9%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
predict

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 22¢No 84¢
6¢
$49,412
$312
0%
23%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Ohio governor election, specifically whether the Democratic party will win. Currently, the consensus probability of a Democratic victory is 80.5%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, and will resolve based on reporting from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). The market will close and settle based on the election results, so keep a close watch on the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026 to gauge candidate strength and potential shifts in the forecast.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election using the same primary resolution sources and a consistent definition of what constitutes a win.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.
  • Resolution is based on the consensus call of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus is reached, official certification determines the outcome.
  • Candidates running as independents are not considered part of the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner.
  • Certification Delay: If the news sources do not call the race and official certification is significantly delayed, resolution may be postponed until certification is available.
Timing: Resolution will occur once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on which major party candidate wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election and is subsequently inaugurated. A Yes resolution occurs if either a Democratic or Republican party representative is inaugurated as governor.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the outcome of the Ohio Governor election. It aggregates trading volume of over $4,514,534 with $481,575 traded in the last 24 hours, representing a combined market capitalization across both platforms. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? at 80.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio at 80.0%. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of predictions surrounding the election, reflecting the collective wisdom of diverse market participants.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on a particular outcome. This can be a more accurate indicator, as it incorporates not just belief, but also the perceived information and potential for shifts in sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to biases in polling methodologies or the market identifying information not yet fully reflected in public opinion. Examining both sources provides a more nuanced understanding of the race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the volume of trading – can also create temporary discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or varying risk appetites among traders on each platform can lead to divergent predictions. These variations are normal and contribute to a more robust overall market signal for the Ohio Governor election.

This market resolves around Jan 14, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Ohio Governor election by the relevant state election authorities. The market will reflect the official results, providing a clear and objective resolution based on the established electoral process. Traders can be confident that the outcome will be based on verifiable data.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant shifts in economic conditions within Ohio, or unexpected developments in the candidates' campaigns could all cause price fluctuations. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, will likely influence trading activity. Additionally, any unforeseen controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to a reassessment of probabilities. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.