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457,804
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December 31, 2028
- Polymarket
December 31, 2028 - Polymarket
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Vol.
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Resolves Jan 1, 2029
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This market tracks whether the State of Ohio will enact a statewide moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2028. Currently, Polymarket gives a 21.5% probability to this outcome, while the probability of Ohio enacting a moratorium by December 31, 2027 is 18.5%. Resolution will be based on official information from the state government of Ohio, as detailed in the resolution source. Traders should closely watch the Ohio legislature for any bills related to data center development, particularly as the market approaches its resolution date of January 1, 2029, which marks the end of the betting period for this event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Ohio enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Ohio; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability of the Ohio enacting a data center moratorium. This contrasts with recent polling data, which shows a more divided public opinion on the issue. While polls capture a broader snapshot of sentiment, this market represents the aggregated predictions of individuals with skin in the game, potentially offering a more accurate forecast. It's important to note that polls and prediction markets address the same question – will Ohio enact a data center moratorium – but through different methodologies and participant incentives.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing potential outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' share reflects the market's implied probability of the Ohio enacting a data center moratorium. As more traders believe the moratorium will pass, the price of 'Yes' shares increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, 'Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?', holds a chance percentage of 26.5%.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the Ohio state government officially enacts a moratorium on new data center construction before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available legislative records and official government statements. Traders should monitor news sources and official government channels for updates as the resolution date approaches, as these will be the basis for verifying the final result of this market.
Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Ohio state legislators regarding the potential moratorium would be a major catalyst. Legislative committee hearings, bill introductions, and votes will all heavily influence the price of shares. Economic factors, such as energy prices and demand for data center space, could also play a role. Unexpected political developments within Ohio's government or shifts in public opinion could also move this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.