TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether MrBeast’s next YouTube video will receive between 80 and 90 million views within its first week after being posted. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 97.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 70 to 80 million views – is at 2.5%. Resolution will be based on the view count reported on MrBeast’s YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) for the video, as determined seven days after its release. Keep an eye on MrBeast’s channel for a new video release, as the market will resolve based on views accumulated by September 12, 2026, our current resolution date estimate.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Currently, analysts predict a wide range of views for MrBeast’s next video, with estimates varying considerably based on content speculation and past performance. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. While analyst forecasts are based on subjective assessments, the odds in this market are driven by actual financial commitments, potentially offering a more accurate signal of expected views. Discrepancies between analyst predictions and the market’s pricing can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the number of views MrBeast’s next video will receive in its first week. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution of potential outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price of a share, the greater the market’s confidence in that particular outcome. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment among traders.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for MrBeast’s next video during its first week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The view count will be sourced from YouTube analytics and will represent the total number of views accumulated within the first seven days of the video’s release. The resolution will be based on the publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final view count as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any announcements regarding the content of MrBeast’s next video, such as teasers or collaborations, could shift expectations and influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to YouTube’s algorithm or changes in viewership trends could also play a role. Furthermore, the performance of MrBeast’s prior videos and broader trends in online video consumption will be closely watched. Positive or negative reactions to the video upon its release will be a major catalyst, potentially causing rapid price movements in this market.