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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?
polymarket

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

Volume:
$37,826

4+

 - Polymarket

4+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks how many calendar days ChatGPT will experience outages during June 2026, based on incidents OpenAI officially classifies as Partial or Full Outages. On Polymarket, fewer than 2 outage days is trading at 33.5%, while exactly 2 outage days is at 22.5%. Resolution will be determined by official system status information published on status.openai.com, with the market settling at 12:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, provided all incidents occurring during June have been marked resolved and relevant data released.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the number of days ChatGPT experiences outages during June 2026 on Polymarket. It displays the current implied probability of the leading outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $10,809, and cumulative market volume of $37,821. The interface updates live as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting evolving expectations about ChatGPT service reliability over that month. You can monitor price history, order flow, and sentiment shifts as the June 2026 resolution date approaches.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus rather than traditional analyst reports. While tech analysts may publish infrastructure reliability estimates or historical ChatGPT uptime data, prediction markets incorporate that information plus trader expectations about future service disruptions, competitive pressures, and operational changes. The market-implied odds represent decentralized forecasting; they often diverge from analyst consensus because traders have financial incentives to price in tail risks and emerging signals that formal reports may lag in capturing.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the end of June 2026. Resolution hinges on the actual count of days during that month when ChatGPT experienced service outages. Traders must await official confirmation of downtime events and their duration to determine which outcome bracket applies. The specific resolution criteria and data sources are defined in the market's terms; once June closes, the outcome is locked in and payouts are distributed accordingly to winning position holders.

Key catalysts include announced infrastructure upgrades or maintenance windows by OpenAI, cybersecurity incidents or DDoS attacks targeting ChatGPT, competitive service launches that strain capacity, regulatory actions affecting API availability, and historical outage patterns from prior months. Trader sentiment may also shift based on OpenAI's public statements about reliability improvements, data center expansions, or technical debt. Real-time incident reports and post-mortems published during June 2026 will directly influence final pricing as traders update their outage-day forecasts closer to resolution.