TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
October Inflation US - Monthly
polymarket

What will October 2026 inflation be?

Oct 14, 2026, 12:16 PM EST - Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$25,633
Volume 24h:
$890
86%
Liquidity:
$21,518
13%
Open interest:
$11,997N/A

0.3%

 - Polymarket

0.3% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 18d:07h:07m

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?

38%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 39¢ buys you 256 shares | Odds: 38% Total Payout: $256 | Net Profit: $156 Multiplier: 2.56x | ROI: 156% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
38%
Yes 39¢No 63¢
2¢
$2,374
$5,836
13%
167%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
27%
4%
Yes 28¢No 75¢
3¢
$1,636
$3,854
4%
135%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
16%
2%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
3¢
$3,920
$6,436
0.92%
60%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

≤0.1%

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 11¢No 93¢
4¢
$7,746
$6,950
0.58%
356%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.5%

Trade
6%
Yes 10.8¢No 99¢
9.8¢
$976
$822
0%
17%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

≥0.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$993
$457
0%
28%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$1,230
$367
0%
38%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,098
$378
0%
36%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

0.6%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$1,545
$533
0%
33%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October US inflation market tracks the current odds of various inflation outcomes, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $890, and total volume traded to date of $25,633. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the upcoming inflation report. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for October inflation. While many analysts anticipate a continued moderation in price increases, this market reflects a broader range of potential outcomes, incorporating the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own expectations for the upcoming CPI data release. The market allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities as new information becomes available.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of October’s US inflation rate. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will rise. This creates a dynamic pricing system that constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. The current trading volume indicates strong interest in this market.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official October US inflation data is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Traders will be able to see the final result and corresponding payouts after the BLS publishes the report. The market’s outcome hinges on the actual inflation rate reported for the month of October, as measured by the CPI.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Preliminary economic data releases, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) or employment reports, could offer clues about inflationary pressures. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in energy prices could also influence market sentiment. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy could impact expectations for future inflation. Any news that alters perceptions of the economic outlook has the potential to cause substantial shifts in trading activity and, consequently, the odds within this market.