TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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October Inflation US - Annual
polymarket

What will October inflation be?

Oct 14, 2026, 12:15 PM EST - Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$19,719
Volume 24h:
$1,626
3,762%
Liquidity:
$49,187
77%
Open interest:
$4,528N/A

3.7%

 - Polymarket

3.7% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 18d:07h:07m

Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% High Projected APY: 657% 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.7%

Trade
89%
Yes 90¢No 12¢
2¢
$7,924
$8,772
21%
96%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.8%

Trade
7%
Yes 7.4¢No 93.9¢
1.3¢
$4,548
$1,150
0%
8%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

4.0%

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
$4,100
$1,461
0%
5%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.9%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.7¢
1.3¢
$3,766
$2,254
0%
92%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.4%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
$3,888
$748
11%
16%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

4.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
0.5¢
$3,557
$1,007
0%
47%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

≥4.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.9¢
1.1¢
$3,412
$833
2%
28%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

≤3.2%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.9¢
1¢
$3,534
$792
0%
18%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.5%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$3,018
$676
0%
11%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$3,849
$662
0%
4%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

3.6%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$3,710
$642
0%
4%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
polymarket

4.2%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$3,882
$723
0%
4%
N/A
2w 4d 7h
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market tracks the annual US inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The dashboard displays the current implied probability of different inflation outcomes, along with the trading volume of $19,719 and 24-hour volume of $1,626. Users can view the price history of the market, allowing them to analyze how predictions have shifted over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about future price changes, offering insight into expectations for the economy.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the US inflation rate. These expectations are often compared to those of professional economists and financial analysts. While analyst forecasts provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more accurate prediction. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall view of where the US inflation rate is headed.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the future US inflation rate. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of participants, and can fluctuate rapidly based on new information or shifts in sentiment. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s price discovery process.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual annual US inflation rate is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will serve as the determining factor. Traders will then be paid out based on the final inflation rate and their holdings in the market. This allows participants to profit from accurately predicting the economic indicator.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as monthly CPI reports or employment figures, will likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, including interest rate adjustments or quantitative easing measures, are also major catalysts. Geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in energy prices could all impact inflation expectations and, consequently, the price action in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential market movements.