TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of the NZDUSD currency pair at a specific future date and time. Each market has a different threshold value, and the outcome depends on whether the exchange rate exceeds that threshold at the specified moment.
All markets resolve based on the NZDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 28, 2026, as published by Pyth. For each market, if the rate is above the specified threshold at that exact time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All rates are rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact expiration time, the most recently available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate will not affect the resolution. Each market features a distinct threshold value ranging incrementally from 0.575 to 0.613, allowing participants to assess the probability of the currency pair exceeding various levels.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the NZDUSD exchange rate might land. Analysts may incorporate macro models, central bank policies, and economic indicators, while traders on Kalshi react to short-term news, sentiment shifts, and market flows. Both sources can diverge, offering complementary perspectives on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds by buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the NZDUSD rate at the specified time. The current implied probability reflects the market’s best estimate of where the rate will fall—higher odds for one side indicate stronger trader conviction. Volume of $3,791 and recent 24-hour volume of $369 help gauge participation and confidence levels.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final NZDUSD price at the specified time will be the basis for settlement, closing all positions based on that verified exchange rate.
Several signals could shift expectations for this market before Aug 28, 2026. Central bank announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand or the Federal Reserve, shifts in global risk sentiment, commodity price changes, and key economic data releases (like CPI or employment figures) often drive currency movements. Geopolitical developments and market volatility events may also influence trader positioning and reshape odds.