TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) exchange rate at a specific future moment. Participants assess whether the rate will surpass various thresholds, allowing them to speculate on currency strength relative to predefined levels.
All markets resolve based on the NZDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a distinct threshold; if the rate is above its respective threshold at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth lacks data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution. This consistent framework applies uniformly across all thresholds, ensuring transparent and uniform evaluation for each market.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where the NZDUSD pair might trade. Analysts may incorporate macro models, central bank policies, and economic indicators, while traders on Kalshi price in real-time reactions to news and data releases. The resulting odds can diverge from consensus forecasts, especially when market volatility spikes or unexpected events occur in the lead-up to Aug 21, 2026.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final NZDUSD price at the exact time specified will be compared against the market's defined thresholds, and the result will be settled automatically based on that verified data point.
Key signals that could shift this market include major economic releases from Australia and New Zealand, such as employment data, inflation figures, or central bank announcements. Shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations, commodity price changes, and geopolitical developments affecting trade flows can also influence NZDUSD movements. Traders on Kalshi will react quickly to any data that alters expectations for interest rate differentials or currency strength before Aug 21, 2026.