TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether the NZDUSD exchange rate will exceed specific thresholds at a set time in the future. Each market corresponds to a different price level, and the outcome depends on the rate published by a designated data source at the exact expiration moment.
All markets resolve based on the NZDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. For each market, if the rate at that specific time is above the stated threshold — ranging from 0.567 to 0.605 — the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the rate rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time is used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time do not affect the resolution. This consistent framework applies uniformly across all thresholds, ensuring clarity and uniformity in determining outcomes for each market.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reveal a different perspective. Analysts may weigh long-term economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors to project the NZDUSD price. In contrast, traders on Kalshi react to immediate market sentiment, news flow, and short-term speculation, which can create divergence from institutional outlooks. Monitoring both sources offers a fuller view of market expectations.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final price will be checked against widely accepted financial data providers at the specified time, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could shift expectations for this market before Aug 14, 2026. Key central bank announcements, especially from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand or the Federal Reserve, will heavily influence NZDUSD movements. Global risk sentiment, driven by geopolitical developments or commodity price swings, may also affect the pair. Additionally, domestic economic data releases—such as employment figures, inflation reports, or trade balances—from either New Zealand or the United States can cause rapid repricing of odds as traders adjust to new information.