NYA (NYA) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: NYA (NYA) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:11.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, September 28, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, September 28, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NYA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE Composite Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, September 28, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, September 28, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NYA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE Composite Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NYA direction market tracks the current odds of the New York Stock Exchange (NYA) closing up or down on September 28. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $25. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of each outcome, as determined by traders on Polymarket. Total volume for this market is $25.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment on Polymarket suggests a strong likelihood of the NYA closing up on September 28. However, it's important to note that analyst forecasts often differ. A recent survey of leading financial analysts showed a more divided opinion, with approximately 60% predicting an upward trend and 40% anticipating a decline. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe, which can sometimes diverge from traditional expert opinions due to the wisdom of the crowd effect and differing information weighting.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing value of the New York Stock Exchange (NYA) on September 28 will be used to determine whether the market settles on the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and objectivity in the resolution process. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major factors include upcoming inflation data releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and any unexpected developments in global trade or political stability. Strong positive economic data could drive the market towards the 'Up' outcome, while negative surprises could push it towards 'Down'. Unexpected corporate earnings reports from major NYA-listed companies could also create volatility and shift trader sentiment.

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