TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
NY-19 Republican nominee?
kalshi

NY-19 Republican nominee?

Volume:
$3,117

Peter K Oberacker

 - Kalshi

Peter K Oberacker - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 24, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 10:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Peter K Oberacker

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,285
N/A
N/A
$1,280
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Alexander M Portelli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,832
N/A
N/A
$1,612
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Republican Party nomination for New York's 19th congressional district House seat in the 2026 election cycle. On Kalshi, Peter K Oberacker holds 93.0% probability as the leading nominee, while Alexander M Portelli stands at 9.0%. The market resolves according to which candidate wins the Republican Party nomination as determined by official party processes. Watch the 2026 election cycle nomination process to see how candidate positioning and party endorsements shape the final outcome by November 3, 2026.

Kalshi

If Peter K Oberacker wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexander M Portelli wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate trader expectations about turnout, campaign momentum, and late-breaking developments that polls may not capture in real time. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately. For NY-19, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent polling can reveal whether traders are pricing in different assumptions about candidate viability or electability than surveys suggest.

The NY-19 Republican nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the Republican primary or nominating process for New York's 19th congressional district. The market will settle based on which candidate is formally designated or wins the Republican nomination for the general election. Traders should monitor the New York Republican Party calendar and primary schedule to understand the timeline and mechanics by which the nominee will be officially determined.

Key catalysts for NY-19 Republican nominee odds include candidate announcements or withdrawals, endorsements from party leaders or sitting officials, debate performances, fundraising reports, and primary election results if applicable. Local media coverage, polling releases, and shifts in voter sentiment can also drive significant price movements. Additionally, broader national political developments, changes in district demographics or registration, and campaign spending announcements may influence trader expectations about each candidate's viability and chances of securing the Republican nomination.