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NY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
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What will be the margin of victory in the NY-17 Democratic Primary?

Volume:
$57,834

Conley 15%+

 - Polymarket

Conley 15%+ - Polymarket

1W

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Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 2:08 PM EST

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View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Conley 15%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.7¢
N/A
$22,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Conley 10–15%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Conley 5–10%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Conley <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Davidson wins

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NY-17 Democratic primary margin market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for outcomes tied to the winning margin in New York's 17th Congressional District Democratic primary. The interface displays current probabilities for various margin ranges, 24-hour trading volume of $883, and historical price data that reflects how traders are pricing each outcome. This dashboard lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new polling data, endorsements, or campaign developments emerge, with total liquidity across all outcomes currently at $57,807.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate not just current survey data but also fundraising, ground organization, and late-breaking campaign news. While polls capture a snapshot of voter preference at a single moment, this market prices in expectations about turnout, momentum, and candidate viability through the resolution date. Traders betting real money tend to react faster to shifting dynamics than pollsters release new surveys, making market odds a forward-looking complement to polling averages rather than a direct mirror of them.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the Democratic primary election in New York's 17th district has concluded and the margin of victory is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the difference in vote share between the winning candidate and the runner-up, categorized into the specific margin ranges offered in the market. Resolution occurs after all votes are counted and the result is confirmed through official election data.

Major catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in candidate support, campaign endorsements from high-profile figures, debate performances, fundraising announcements, and voter turnout models. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or scandals can also trigger sharp repricing. As the primary date approaches, early voting data and ground-game reports become increasingly influential. Media coverage of momentum swings and demographic breakdowns may prompt traders to adjust their positions, especially in the final weeks before ballots are cast.