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NY-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will be the margin of victory in the NY-13 Democratic Primary?

Volume:
$93,940

Avila Chevalier <5%

 - Polymarket

Avila Chevalier <5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 4:32 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Avila Chevalier <5%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Espaillat 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Espaillat 10%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Espaillat <5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Avila Chevalier 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Avila Chevalier 10%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NY-13 Democratic primary margin market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for outcomes tied to the winning margin in New York's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. The interface displays current probabilities, 24-hour trading volume of $3,390, and historical price charts reflecting how traders have repriced their expectations over time. This dashboard lets you monitor shifts in sentiment as new polling data, endorsements, or campaign developments emerge. Total volume across this market stands at $93,940, indicating active participation and liquidity for position-taking or hedging.

Prediction markets and traditional polls often diverge because traders incorporate information beyond survey snapshots—including endorsements, fundraising, turnout models, and real-time campaign momentum. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, this market prices in the collective judgment of participants betting real money on the actual outcome. Traders may weight recent developments or demographic shifts differently than pollsters do. Comparing current odds to the latest public polling can reveal where the market sees an edge or where consensus may be shifting faster than surveys capture.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the NY-13 Democratic primary election has concluded and results are verified against credible public sources. The outcome will be determined by the official margin of victory—the percentage-point gap between the winning candidate and the runner-up. Resolution hinges on the final certified vote count from New York election authorities. Until that point, traders can adjust positions based on late-breaking developments, early voting trends, or final campaign pushes.

Major catalysts include new public polling, candidate debate performances, endorsements from high-profile figures, and shifts in voter registration or early voting patterns. Campaign spending announcements, media coverage of gaffes or policy positions, and turnout modeling adjustments can all reshape trader expectations. Local news coverage of constituent concerns—housing, crime, transit—may influence momentum. As election day approaches, early voting results and exit poll leaks often trigger sharp repricing. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or last-minute controversies could also swing odds significantly in either direction.