TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 45%
- Kalshi
At least 45% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 20, 11:07 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the vote share that Darializa Avila Chevalier receives in the 2026 New York 13th Congressional District Democratic primary election. Her performance will be measured against several threshold benchmarks to determine outcomes across multiple related markets.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the certified percentage of popular votes received by the candidate, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Valid votes include write-in votes appearing in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Resolution uses certified/official results only, not preliminary counts. If ranked choice voting or multiple rounds occur, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different signals. Polls capture voter preference at a single moment, while this market aggregates real-time expectations from traders who face financial incentives to forecast accurately. Markets can react faster to breaking news, campaign developments, or demographic shifts than polls can be conducted and published. However, both tools have value: polls provide direct voter sentiment, whereas prediction markets incorporate traders' synthesis of multiple information sources, including polling data itself, endorsements, and fundraising trends.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different vote-share ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of market participants about Darializa Avila Chevalier's final vote percentage. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, bids and asks adjust, causing prices to move. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome, creating strong incentives for accurate pricing and efficient information discovery throughout the campaign period.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2027, once the New York Democratic primary election concludes and results are finalized. The outcome is determined by Darializa Avila Chevalier's official vote share as reported by credible public sources covering the election. Resolution occurs after vote totals are verified and any recounts or certification processes are complete. Traders should monitor official election reporting and news coverage as the date approaches to understand when final results will be available and the market will settle.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent local or state figures, and debate performances can reshape voter preferences and trader expectations. Polling releases, fundraising reports, and media coverage of candidate viability all influence market pricing. Demographic shifts in voter turnout, last-minute candidate withdrawals, or unexpected controversies could trigger sharp price movements. Additionally, broader political developments affecting the Democratic primary landscape or local issues in NY-13 may prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust market odds accordingly.
