TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Brad Lander, 30-35%
- Kalshi
Brad Lander, 30-35% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 20, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Brad Lander will compete in the 2026 New York 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 17, 2026. These markets track the margin of victory—the difference between Lander's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share if he wins, or between the first-place finisher and Lander if he loses.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary is calculated as the difference between his vote total and the relevant comparison candidate's vote total. If Lander wins, the margin is positive and equals his votes minus the second-place finisher's votes. If Lander loses, the margin is negative and equals his votes minus the first-place finisher's votes. If Lander ties for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where Lander is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points. Votes are calculated in percentage points, raw vote counts, or electoral votes depending on the margin type specified. If Lander appears on multiple party lines or is listed multiple times, all votes for the same underlying candidate are summed together. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin; for consecutive ranges like 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of exactly 6% falls into the 6-7% range. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. The event resolves to the specific margin range outcome that contains the calculated final margin.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate a broader range of signals—including campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and ground operations—beyond snapshot survey data. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, this market prices in forward-looking expectations and real-time shifts in the race. Traders who outperform polling typically combine quantitative analysis with qualitative insights about candidate viability and voter turnout patterns specific to the NY-10 district.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different margin outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by the market to that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces—polling releases, debate performances, or endorsements—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to shift. Tighter bid-ask spreads typically indicate higher confidence and liquidity around certain margin ranges.
This market resolves around Jun 17, 2027, once the Democratic primary election in New York's 10th district has concluded and the winning margin is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the official vote differential between the top two finishers, measured as a percentage or absolute vote count depending on the contract specifications. Resolution occurs after all ballots are counted and certified by election authorities.
Major catalysts include new polling data showing shifts in candidate support, high-profile endorsements or campaign events, debate performances, fundraising announcements, and voter turnout indicators. Media coverage of gaffes, scandals, or policy positions can rapidly reshape trader expectations about the final margin. Demographic shifts in early or mail-in voting, last-minute campaign spending, and ground-game reports from the district may also trigger significant repricing as the primary date approaches and the race becomes clearer.
