TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 60%
- Kalshi
At least 60% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 20, 11:01 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Brad Lander is running in the 2026 New York State Democratic primary for the 10th Congressional District. These markets track what percentage of the vote he receives in that primary election, with separate markets for different vote share thresholds.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Brad Lander's certified percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves Yes if his certified percentage meets or exceeds its specified threshold (40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, or 80%), and No otherwise. Resolution uses only official certified results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election uses ranked choice voting or multiple rounds, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional polling often diverge because they reflect different methodologies and incentives. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment through surveys, while this market incorporates ongoing trader bets with real financial stakes, encouraging participants to incorporate new information continuously. Markets can react faster to breaking news, campaign developments, or shifts in voter enthusiasm than periodic polls. However, both sources provide valuable signals—polls offer direct voter preference data, while market prices reflect aggregated judgment from participants motivated to forecast accurately.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to Lander's final vote-share outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform displays bid-ask spreads that tighten or widen based on trading activity and liquidity. Prices move as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions, with the market price at any moment reflecting the marginal trader's assessment of Lander's vote percentage. Settlement ultimately depends on verified election results.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2027, following the New York 10th District Democratic primary election. The outcome is determined by Lander's official vote share as verified against credible public reporting from election authorities and major news organizations. Once the primary results are certified and publicly available, the market settles based on his actual percentage of votes cast in the race. Traders holding positions aligned with the final result receive payouts proportional to their stake.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly before resolution. Major polling releases showing changes in voter preference, endorsements from influential local figures, campaign spending announcements, or media coverage highlighting Lander's policy positions or record could all trigger repricing. Turnout expectations, competing candidate momentum, and late-breaking campaign developments also influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader political events affecting Democratic primary dynamics citywide, debate performances, or controversies could reshape market sentiment as participants reassess Lander's final vote share prospects.
