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NY-09 Democratic nominee?
kalshi

NY-09 Democratic nominee?

Volume:
$1,375

Yvette D Clarke

 - Kalshi

Yvette D Clarke - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 24, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 9:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yvette D Clarke

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,074
N/A
N/A
$464
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Joshua Bristol

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Michael Goldfarb

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Yvette D Clarke will secure the Democratic Party nomination for New York's 9th congressional district in the 2026 election cycle. On Kalshi, the probability stands at 89.0%. The market resolves based on which candidate wins the Democratic Party nomination to contest the NY-09 House seat, as determined by official party processes. Watch the 2026 Democratic primary election results for NY-09 to see how the nomination contest unfolds.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified candidates—Yvette D Clarke, Joshua Bristol, or Michael Goldfarb—wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 NY-09 House seat. Each candidate's nomination victory independently triggers a Yes resolution for that candidate's market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate private information, campaign momentum, and insider signals that surveys may lag. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous bets with real financial stakes, incentivizing accuracy. For the NY-09 Democratic nominee race, market prices reflect traders' expectations about primary dynamics, endorsements, and turnout patterns. Comparing market odds to recent polls can reveal where the market is pricing in factors polls have not yet captured or where sentiment has shifted faster than survey data updates.

The NY-09 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the Democratic primary election in New York's 9th congressional district. The market will settle based on which candidate is certified as the Democratic nominee by the relevant election authorities. Traders should monitor primary dates, candidate filings, and any rule changes affecting the nomination process to understand the timeline and conditions that will trigger resolution.

Key catalysts for NY-09 Democratic nominee odds include candidate announcements or withdrawals, major endorsements from local or national figures, debate performances, campaign finance disclosures, and shifts in voter turnout models. Primary election dates in neighboring districts or states can signal momentum. Media coverage of candidate gaffes or accomplishments, polling releases, and grassroots organizing efforts will all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, changes to ballot access rules, redistricting developments, or unexpected candidate entries could reshape the race. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust positions ahead of the primary vote.