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NY-07 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will be the NY-07 Democratic Primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$40,390

Valdez 15%+

 - Polymarket

Valdez 15%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 4:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Valdez 15%+

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Reynoso <5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Valdez 10–15%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Valdez <5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Valdez 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reynoso 5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NY-07 Democratic primary margin race displays real-time odds on how narrowly or decisively the Democratic primary winner will prevail in New York's 7th congressional district. Traders can monitor live price movements, historical odds charts, and 24-hour trading volume of $5 to gauge market sentiment on the margin of victory. The platform aggregates all active contracts related to this race, showing which outcome scenarios traders currently favor most. This data helps participants track shifting expectations as primary season approaches and new information emerges.

Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' probabilistic forecasts incorporating polls, campaign dynamics, and historical patterns. Markets tend to update faster than polls when breaking news occurs, and they can price in uncertainty that polls may not fully capture. Comparing the two reveals whether traders believe polls underestimate or overestimate a candidate's true winning margin, offering a complementary lens to traditional survey data.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, so the current top outcome reflects the most heavily traded scenario. As traders buy or sell shares, the price moves to rebalance supply and demand, creating a continuous price discovery mechanism. The market's liquidity and depth determine how quickly prices respond to new information, and the total volume of $40,390 indicates the level of trader interest in this particular race.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the Democratic primary election in New York's 7th district has concluded and results are verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be determined by the official margin separating the winner from the runner-up, measured in percentage points. Traders should monitor official election reporting and news coverage as the primary date approaches to anticipate how the final tally may align with market expectations. Resolution hinges on the certified result, not preliminary or unofficial counts.

Major catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in candidate support, campaign announcements or endorsements from prominent figures, debate performances, and media coverage of candidate records or controversies. Turnout models and demographic shifts in the district can also influence trader expectations about the likely margin. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entry would reshape the race entirely. As primary day nears, early voting data and ground-game reports may trigger sharp repricing. Traders should watch for any developments that alter perceptions of which candidate will win and by how much.