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NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
polymarket

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Volume:
$36,243

Laura Gillen

 - Polymarket

Laura Gillen - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 24, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Laura Gillen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gian Jones

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$327,101
$3,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nicholas Sciretta

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$13,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Taylor Darling

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$3,981
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate L

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate N

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent New York's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, Laura Gillen holds 84.5% probability of winning the nomination, with Nicholas Sciretta at 9.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic sources including democrats.org, with the Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026. Watch the primary election results on that date to see which candidate emerges as the party's official nominee.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and price movements for all Democratic primary candidates competing in New York's 4th congressional district. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities for each candidate, historical price charts, and $319 in trading activity over the last 24 hours. Users can monitor how market sentiment shifts as new campaign developments, endorsements, and polling data emerge. The interface provides transparency into which candidates the prediction market community favors and how conviction levels change leading up to the Jun 23, 2026 primary election.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking sentiment. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate expectations about actual primary turnout and late-breaking campaign momentum. Markets may price in factors like candidate fundraising, ground organization, and endorsement effects that polls lag in reflecting. Comparing Polymarket odds to recent public polling helps identify where traders see opportunities or risks that conventional surveys may have missed. This divergence can signal either market inefficiency or genuine insight into ground conditions.

The NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner market resolves on Jun 23, 2026, following the official Democratic primary election date for New York's 4th congressional district. Resolution is determined by the official primary results announced by New York State election authorities. The market will settle to the candidate who receives the most votes in the Democratic primary and becomes the party's official nominee for the general election. Once results are certified and the winning candidate is confirmed, the market will automatically resolve and distribute winnings to holders of the winning outcome.

Key catalysts for NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner odds include candidate debate performances, major endorsements from local officials or national figures, and shifts in campaign spending and advertising. Fundraising reports and cash-on-hand disclosures signal candidate viability and can trigger sharp market repricing. Local media coverage, grassroots organizing announcements, and voter registration drives in the district may shift trader expectations about turnout composition. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries would dramatically reshape odds. Late-stage polling releases and early voting data, if available, typically generate significant trading volume. Broader Democratic Party dynamics or national political events could also influence perceptions of electability and momentum.