TOTAL VOLUME:

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24H VOL:

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2,388,728,490

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$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Science and Technology
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on September 8?
opinion
polymarket
kalshi

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on September 8?

Volume:
$12,585

195

 - Opinion

195 - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 11:14 PM EST

opinion

Opinion

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

195

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on September 8?

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 159.779

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
$618
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.819

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$264
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.851

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.821

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.827

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$232
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.855

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.823

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.825

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$198
N/A
N/A
$198
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.831

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.833

View
0%
80%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.835

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$191
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.843

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.839

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.861

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.849

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.853

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.837

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.845

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.829

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.847

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.799

View
0%
80%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
$183
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.783

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.787

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 73

Description

This group of markets asks whether the stock price of NVIDIA (NVDA) will be up or down on September 8, 2026, compared to the prior trading day's closing price. The markets utilize different sources and criteria for determining the closing price and therefore the resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are based on the USDJPY exchange rate and are entirely unrelated to the NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price, rendering them fundamentally unresolvable in the context of the stated question.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi markets in this group. They are irrelevant to the question of whether NVIDIA stock will be up or down. Focus solely on the Polymarket market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether the closing price of NVDA on September 8, 2026, is higher or lower than the previous day's closing price, using Pyth data. "This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the USDJPY exchange rate is above a specified threshold on September 4, 2026. This has no bearing on the price of NVDA.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on September 8, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDJPY exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 4, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its respective threshold at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying rate do not affect resolution. The consistent framework ensures objective evaluation across all thresholds.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, as reflected in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, particularly in situations with complex or uncertain outcomes. The current volume of $11,532 suggests significant interest in this event, and the implied probabilities offer a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the USDJPY price, potentially diverging from conventional financial analysis.