TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 30?

limitless

polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 30?

Volume:

$2,472

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 30?

- Polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 30? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 30?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$1,859

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

limitless

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0¢

N/A

$612

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

These markets assess whether NVIDIA (NVDA) stock closes higher or lower on June 30, 2026, compared to the most recent prior trading day. Both Limitless and Polymarket use Pyth as the authoritative price source, with consistent fallback logic for data gaps and corporate actions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Tie and no-trade resolution differ between platforms. Limitless resolves ties and no-trade events to Down; Polymarket resolves both to 50-50. Additionally, Limitless compares June 29 Close to prior day, while Polymarket compares June 30 Close to prior day, creating a one-day offset in the comparison window.Hero tip: Understand your platform's tie and no-trade rules before trading. On Limitless, equal prices or a trading halt on June 29 means automatic Down resolution. On Polymarket, the same scenarios split the pot 50-50. If NVDA experiences a halt or unusual event on June 29-30, outcomes will diverge sharply between platforms.

Critical divergence points:

Limitless: Compares June 29 Close to most recent prior trading day Close. Resolves to Down if prices are equal or if NVDA does not trade on June 29. Key Quote: 'If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 29, 2026, this market will resolve to Down.'
Polymarket: Compares June 30 Close to most recent prior trading day Close. Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal or if NVDA does not trade on June 30. Key Quote: 'If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 30, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (Pyth NVDA/USD) on June 29, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (Pyth NVDA/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Close price for NVIDIA (Pyth NVDA/USD) captured on June 26, 2026, was $192.29496. Resolution source: Pyth NVDA/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 29, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which NVDA is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVDA during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and Wall Street analyst price targets operate on different timescales and incentive structures. Analysts typically publish 12-month outlooks with reputational skin in the game, while this market focuses on a single-day snapshot. Prediction market odds reflect real-time trader conviction backed by actual capital at risk, often incorporating breaking news and intraday momentum faster than consensus estimates update. For a near-term binary event like a June 30 close, market odds can diverge sharply from longer-term analyst sentiment, especially if earnings, guidance, or macro shifts occur in the final weeks.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Limitless may also enforce slightly different rules around order types, settlement timing, or position limits. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. Additionally, one venue may see a large order flow or whale position that temporarily skews odds before rebalancing occurs across both platforms.

Quarterly earnings announcements, guidance revisions, and semiconductor industry news are primary catalysts for sharp repricing. Broader macro events—Fed policy shifts, recession signals, or geopolitical tensions affecting chip supply—can also swing sentiment overnight. Product launches, competitive announcements from AMD or Intel, and changes to AI demand forecasts will influence trader positioning. Short-term technicals, options expiration, and index rebalancing near month-end may create additional volatility. Real-time monitoring of earnings calendars, analyst downgrades, and insider trading filings helps traders stay ahead of repricing.