TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 3, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 3, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 3, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time consensus from active traders betting on NVIDIA's June 3 price direction, whereas traditional analyst forecasts typically focus on longer-term price targets and fundamental valuations. Prediction markets often incorporate near-term technical sentiment and market microstructure that analysts may not emphasize. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect near-term momentum or mean reversion relative to analyst consensus. Analyst reports generally provide detailed reasoning and multi-month outlooks, while prediction markets distill expectations into a single probability, making them complementary but distinct signals for NVIDIA's short-term direction.
The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after NVIDIA's stock trading closes on June 3. Resolution is determined by comparing NVIDIA's closing price on that date to its opening price the same day. The outcome is binary: if the closing price is higher than the opening price, the Up outcome resolves to yes; if it closes lower or flat, the Down outcome prevails. This straightforward intraday comparison ensures clear, objective resolution based on publicly available market data from NVIDIA's official trading records.
Key catalysts include NVIDIA earnings announcements, guidance revisions, or major product launches scheduled near June 3. Broader market movements, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts or technology sector rotation, can significantly influence NVIDIA's intraday direction. Geopolitical developments affecting semiconductor supply chains or AI regulation may trigger volatility. Short-term technical factors like options expiration, index rebalancing, or algorithmic trading flows can also drive June 3 price action. Competitor announcements, data center demand signals, and macroeconomic data releases in early June could shift trader sentiment and move prediction market odds closer to resolution.