TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on June 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while analyst forecasts typically focus on longer-term price targets and fundamental valuations rather than single-day directional moves. Analysts rarely publish specific intraday predictions for a given date, making direct comparison difficult. Prediction markets excel at pricing short-term binary events because participants have clear financial incentives and immediate feedback. Comparing Polymarket odds to broader market sentiment or historical volatility patterns may provide useful context for evaluating the probability embedded in current trading prices.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the NVIDIA Up or Down contract is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares representing either an up-close or down-close on June 10. The current market probability reflects the collective trading activity and order-book depth on that venue. Prices move continuously as new trades execute, with higher volume typically indicating greater confidence in the outcome. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before market close on Jun 10, 2026, allowing real-time price discovery of the probability that NVIDIA closes higher on that specific day.
Several catalysts could influence NVIDIA's intraday price on June 10. Earnings announcements, product launches, or guidance updates from NVIDIA or competitors may drive sentiment. Broader market events—such as Federal Reserve decisions, macroeconomic data releases, or geopolitical developments—can shift tech-sector momentum. Supply-chain news, AI industry trends, and major customer announcements also affect NVIDIA's trading. Intraday volatility may spike around market open or close, and options expiration or index rebalancing could amplify moves. Traders should monitor financial news and NVIDIA's investor relations calendar leading up to June 10 to assess shifting probabilities on Polymarket.