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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?

Volume:
$8,997

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?

 - Polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 4:00 PM EST

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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 20, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 20, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NVIDIA stock price movement market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price data for the NVIDIA stock price movement market. Traders can monitor how the probability of an up or down move shifts as new information emerges and market participants adjust their positions. The dashboard shows current odds, recent trading activity, and volume trends, giving you a transparent view of how the market is pricing the likelihood of each outcome. This data updates continuously, allowing you to track sentiment and positioning leading up to the resolution date.

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies and incentives. Analysts typically publish price targets and ratings based on fundamental research, earnings models, and sector trends. This market, by contrast, aggregates real-money bets from traders who face direct financial consequences for incorrect predictions. While analysts may emphasize long-term value, prediction markets tend to react more dynamically to near-term catalysts and sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can reveal whether the market is pricing in consensus expectations or diverging based on factors analysts may have overlooked.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell outcome shares, and the price of each share reflects the crowd's collective belief in that outcome occurring. Higher prices signal stronger conviction that NVIDIA stock will move in that direction by the resolution date. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as volume increases, making it easier to enter or exit positions at fair rates.

This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome is determined by whether NVIDIA's stock price closes higher or lower on that date compared to its opening price. Once the market closes, traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is straightforward and based on objective market data available to all participants.

Several catalysts could shift odds in this market before Jul 20, 2026. Earnings announcements, product launches, or guidance revisions from NVIDIA would likely trigger significant repricing. Broader market movements, semiconductor sector news, or macroeconomic data releases could also influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical developments affecting chip supply chains, competitive announcements from rivals, or changes in AI demand forecasts may sway positioning. Real-time news flow and unexpected corporate actions are the primary drivers of volatility in short-term stock price prediction markets.