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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 1?
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 1?

Volume:
$5,323

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 1?

 - Polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 1? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 4:00 PM EST

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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 1?

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
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$5,323
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N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NVIDIA stock price market dashboard displays real-time odds for whether NVIDIA's stock will close higher or lower on July 1st. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, and the current market price reflects the collective forecast of participants. The dashboard shows the live probability for each side, allowing you to monitor how sentiment shifts as new information emerges. This market aggregates trading activity to surface the crowd's best estimate of NVIDIA's direction on that specific date.

Prediction markets and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different principles. Analysts typically publish price targets and ratings based on fundamental research, while this market reflects real-time consensus from traders with financial skin in the game. Prediction market odds often incorporate information faster than analyst updates, since participants can trade instantly on breaking news. However, both sources have merit: analysts provide detailed reasoning, whereas market odds distill expectations into a single probability. Comparing the two can reveal where professional opinion and crowd sentiment diverge.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one outcome—either NVIDIA up or down—and the price you see reflects supply and demand at that moment. When more traders buy the "up" side, its price rises and probability increases; conversely, selling pushes it lower. This continuous price discovery mechanism means the market adjusts instantly to new catalysts, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts affecting semiconductor stocks.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once NVIDIA's closing stock price for that day is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whether the stock closes above or below its previous close, with no ambiguity in the data source. Resolution typically occurs within hours of market close, allowing traders to settle positions quickly. The binary structure—up or down—eliminates disputes over exact price levels, making settlement straightforward and transparent.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before Jul 1, 2026. Earnings announcements, guidance revisions, or major product launches from NVIDIA would likely trigger sharp moves. Broader semiconductor sector news, geopolitical developments affecting chip supply chains, or shifts in AI demand could also sway traders. Macroeconomic data—interest rate decisions, inflation reports, or recession signals—often impact tech stocks broadly. Additionally, analyst upgrades or downgrades, insider transactions, or competitive announcements from rivals may influence sentiment. Real-time monitoring of tech news and market commentary helps traders stay ahead of repricing.