TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 4:38 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a strong belief that NVIDIA stock will close within a specific price range. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often provide a single point estimate or a wider range with less granular detail. While analysts may predict NVIDIA's stock price will increase, this market allows traders to bet on specific price bands, providing a more nuanced view of potential outcomes. It's important to note that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially capturing information not readily available to analysts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe NVIDIA will close at a certain price, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly, creating a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing price of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock for the week of September 14th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official closing price reported by a major financial exchange. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market, reflecting whether their predictions about the stock price were accurate. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any major news regarding NVIDIA’s financial performance, such as earnings reports or revenue projections, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader market trends, including overall economic conditions and investor sentiment towards the technology sector, could also play a role. Furthermore, announcements related to new product launches, regulatory changes impacting the semiconductor industry, or significant competitor actions could all move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold.