TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?
polymarket

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?

Volume:
$98,184

1-2

 - Polymarket

1-2 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1-2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
5.4¢
N/A
$21,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the number of distinct calendar days in June 2026 when North Korea conducts ballistic, cruise, or anti-ship missile tests. The leading outcome—that 1 to 2 test days will occur—stands at 77.0% probability on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official government statements, UN reports, or reputable international media coverage, counting only launches that begin during June 2026 Pyongyang Time. Watch for any official announcements or satellite imagery from international monitoring bodies as June 2026 approaches to gauge North Korea's testing tempo.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026 event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the leading outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $12,202. The dashboard aggregates all bets placed on this specific event, showing how traders collectively assess the likelihood of missile test activity during June 2026. Updated continuously, it reflects the most current market sentiment and liquidity for this geopolitical prediction.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026 following the end of June 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual number of ballistic missile, cruise missile, or other significant weapons tests conducted by North Korea during that calendar month. Official sources such as government defense statements, satellite imagery analysis, and international monitoring agencies provide the factual basis for counting. The outcome categories are pre-defined, and the market settles based on which category the final count falls into. Traders should monitor official announcements and credible intelligence reports throughout June 2026 for updates on test activity.

Key catalysts include diplomatic developments such as sanctions relief, summit announcements, or escalating U.S.–North Korea rhetoric. Military provocations by neighboring states, joint exercises involving South Korea or Japan, or changes in North Korean leadership priorities could trigger test activity. Technical milestones—such as progress on intercontinental ballistic missile programs or hypersonic weapon development—often prompt demonstration tests. International incidents, weapons inspections, or shifts in Chinese or Russian policy toward North Korea may also influence regime decisions. Traders should monitor defense ministry statements, satellite imagery reports, and geopolitical news for signals of imminent test activity or restraint.