TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the number of distinct calendar days in June 2026 when North Korea conducts ballistic, cruise, or anti-ship missile tests. The leading outcome—that 1 to 2 test days will occur—stands at 77.0% probability on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official government statements, UN reports, or reputable international media coverage, counting only launches that begin during June 2026 Pyongyang Time. Watch for any official announcements or satellite imagery from international monitoring bodies as June 2026 approaches to gauge North Korea's testing tempo.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026 following the end of June 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual number of ballistic missile, cruise missile, or other significant weapons tests conducted by North Korea during that calendar month. Official sources such as government defense statements, satellite imagery analysis, and international monitoring agencies provide the factual basis for counting. The outcome categories are pre-defined, and the market settles based on which category the final count falls into. Traders should monitor official announcements and credible intelligence reports throughout June 2026 for updates on test activity.
Key catalysts include diplomatic developments such as sanctions relief, summit announcements, or escalating U.S.–North Korea rhetoric. Military provocations by neighboring states, joint exercises involving South Korea or Japan, or changes in North Korean leadership priorities could trigger test activity. Technical milestones—such as progress on intercontinental ballistic missile programs or hypersonic weapon development—often prompt demonstration tests. International incidents, weapons inspections, or shifts in Chinese or Russian policy toward North Korea may also influence regime decisions. Traders should monitor defense ministry statements, satellite imagery reports, and geopolitical news for signals of imminent test activity or restraint.