TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
polymarket

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?

Volume:
$144,501

3+

 - Polymarket

3+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Closed: Aug 20, 8:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3+

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$75,546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the North Korea missile test count market tracks real-time odds and price movements for the number of missile tests North Korea will conduct in August 2026. It shows current probabilities, price history charts, and 24-hour volume of $66,754 to help users monitor market sentiment and betting trends on this specific geopolitical event.

Currently, prediction market odds imply a higher probability of fewer tests compared to many security analyst forecasts, which often anticipate more aggressive actions from North Korea. This gap reflects trader skepticism about imminent provocations, whereas analysts may weigh broader regional tensions and historical patterns. Monitoring this market offers a real-time barometer of crowd-sourced expectations distinct from institutional reports.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the exact number of North Korea missile tests conducted in August 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will settle all contracts based on confirmed events, closing the market definitively at the end of that month.

Key signals include North Korean military statements, missile launch announcements, United Nations Security Council reactions, and regional power diplomatic moves. Any confirmed test or official pause announcement could shift probabilities quickly, while broader geopolitical developments — such as sanctions, summits, or regional conflicts — may also influence trader sentiment and market prices before Aug 31, 2026.