TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$266,367,375
24H TRANSACTIONS:
960,901,819
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,196,061,598
832,481
Markets across
15,126
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
961
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
How many tweets will Elon Musk post from Jul 13-20, 2026?
Time left: 03d:21h:08m
Will Elon Musk tweet between 0 and 99 times between Jul 13th - Jul 20th 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Jul 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Jul 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Jul 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Jul 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. While analysts may publish point estimates or ranges for social media activity, this market allows traders to express probabilistic views by buying and selling shares tied to specific outcome ranges. The market price represents a crowd-sourced probability that often diverges from any single analyst's prediction, offering an alternative data source for understanding expected tweet volume during the specified week.
On Predict, this market is priced through continuous order-matching, where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different tweet-count ranges. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the balance of buy and sell orders at any moment, with prices moving as new trades occur and sentiment shifts. Traders profit by correctly predicting which outcome range will occur, incentivizing accurate forecasting and efficient price discovery throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, once the seven-day observation period concludes and the actual tweet count can be verified. The outcome is determined by counting all posts made by Elon Musk's account during the specified interval and matching that total against the predefined ranges offered in the market. Resolution occurs after credible public sources confirm the final count, allowing Predict to settle all positions based on which outcome range the actual figure falls into.
Several factors may shift trader expectations and market odds leading up to Jul 20, 2026. Changes in Elon Musk's public schedule, announcements of major business developments, or shifts in his social media engagement patterns could influence forecasts. Additionally, any platform policy changes affecting posting frequency, broader market sentiment around his companies, or notable events requiring his commentary may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Real-time monitoring of his account activity and broader news cycles will help traders adjust their views as new information surfaces.
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