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Science and Technology
Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine: 2026
kalshi

Who will win Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine?

Volume:
$8,026

Karl Deisseroth

 - Kalshi

Karl Deisseroth - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:59 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Karl Deisseroth

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Daniel Drucker

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,763
N/A
N/A
$3,076
Settled
No
kalshi

James Fujimoto

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,293
N/A
N/A
$963
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeffrey Friedman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$739
N/A
N/A
$739
Settled
No
kalshi

Timothy Springer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
$423
Settled
No
kalshi

Carl June

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$358
N/A
N/A
$358
Settled
No
kalshi

Emmanuel Mignot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$246
Settled
No
kalshi

Brian Druker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
No
kalshi

Yuan Chang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Mary-Claire King

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
No
kalshi

Franz-Ulrich Hartl

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
$138
Settled
No
kalshi

Zhijian James Chen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Kazutoshi Mori

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Max D. Cooper

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
kalshi

John Dick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Anthony Hunter

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Stuart Orkin

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Helen Hobbs

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia Man-Yee Lee

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Azim Surani

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wolfram Schultz

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael N. Hall

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Yuk Ming Dennis Lo

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hans Clevers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jean Bennett

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Description

This event tracks predictions about who will be awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2026. Participants speculate on the potential recipients of this prestigious scientific honor, reflecting ongoing interest and uncertainty in the scientific community regarding future recognition of groundbreaking research.

Kalshi

If Daniel Drucker has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Emmanuel Mignot has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Fujimoto has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Timothy Springer has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zhijian James Chen has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Carl June has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stuart Orkin has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Helen Hobbs has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mary-Claire King has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Virginia Man-Yee Lee has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Azim Surani has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wolfram Schultz has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Dick has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kazutoshi Mori has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Franz-Ulrich Hartl has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael N. Hall has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeffrey Friedman has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yuk Ming Dennis Lo has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Karl Deisseroth has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hans Clevers has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jean Bennett has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rosa Rademakers has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kenji Kangawa has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Max D. Cooper has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dennis Slamon has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alim-Louis Benabid has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ronald Vale has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Napoleone Ferrara has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Huda Zoghbi has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lewis Cantley has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Peter Walter has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeffrey Gordon has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yuan Chang has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Druker has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthony Hunter has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen Elledge has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes. If Seiji Ogawa has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, providing insight into what traders believe is most likely to happen. Currently, the total volume for this market is $8,026, with $2,166 traded in the last 24 hours. This data allows you to assess market activity and potential areas of interest within the Nobel Prize selection process.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expertise and published research, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Often, prediction markets can outperform polls and expert opinions, particularly when there is significant uncertainty or hidden information surrounding the Nobel Prize selection. It's common to see discrepancies, as markets incorporate a wider range of factors and react quickly to new information, something that analyst forecasts may not always capture.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential winners of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective beliefs of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Nobel Committee publicly announces the laureate(s) in Physiology or Medicine. The announcement will be verified against credible public reporting from official sources, such as the Nobel Prize website and major news organizations. The market will then settle based on the individual or individuals awarded the prize in that year, reflecting the official decision of the Nobel Committee. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi following the official announcement.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breakthroughs in biomedical research, particularly those receiving widespread attention in scientific publications and media coverage, are likely to influence trading activity. Unexpected developments in ongoing clinical trials or the emergence of new, promising research areas could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding potential nominees, such as increased citations of their work or recognition through other prestigious awards, could move this market. Finally, leaks or rumors, though often unreliable, can sometimes cause short-term fluctuations in trading volume and price.