Who will win the Nobel Prize in Economics 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a particular economist will win the prize. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of that economist winning. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, once the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has announced the recipient of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The outcome will be determined by the official announcement from the Academy, and verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the winning economist and 0 for all others. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to the announcement date for any developments that might influence the outcome of this market.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Major publications of research papers by potential laureates, particularly those receiving significant attention within the economics community, could shift probabilities. Announcements of prestigious awards or recognition for economists could also influence trading activity. Unexpected developments in economic thought or policy debates could highlight certain economists' contributions and increase their chances. Finally, any public statements or leaks regarding the Academy’s deliberations, though rare, would likely have a substantial impact on this market.