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400,720

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NJ-10 Democratic nominee?
kalshi

NJ-10 Democratic nominee?

Volume:
$974

LaMonica McIver

 - Kalshi

LaMonica McIver - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 3, 2026

Closed: Jun 2, 10:26 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

LaMonica McIver

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$461
N/A
N/A
$391
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Lawrence Poster

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$513
N/A
N/A
$412
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent New Jersey's 10th congressional district in the 2026 House election. On Kalshi, LaMonica McIver commands 97.0% probability as the leading contender, while Lawrence Poster holds 10.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic Party nomination results. Watch the 2026 general election on November 3rd to confirm the nominee's path forward.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate insider knowledge, campaign momentum, and fundraising data that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect real-money bets on actual nomination outcomes, creating dynamic pricing. Markets tend to be more responsive to breaking news, endorsements, and organizational strength. Comparing Kalshi odds to recent NJ-10 Democratic primary polls reveals whether the market is pricing in factors polls haven't yet captured or if consensus exists between both signals.

The NJ-10 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the Democratic nomination process for New Jersey's 10th congressional district. The market will settle based on who is certified as the Democratic nominee by the relevant state and party authorities. Traders should monitor official announcements from the New Jersey Democratic Party and election officials as the nomination date approaches to understand the exact criteria and timing that will trigger final settlement.

Key catalysts for NJ-10 Democratic nominee odds include endorsements from party leaders, union backing, and high-profile political figures. Campaign fundraising reports and spending announcements signal candidate viability and can shift trader expectations. Debate performances, media coverage, and grassroots organizing metrics influence market sentiment. Local polling releases, primary election results in neighboring districts, and shifts in voter registration data may also move prices. Unexpected candidate withdrawals, scandals, or strategic alliance announcements can trigger sharp repricing. Traders should monitor New Jersey political news, campaign announcements, and Democratic Party developments closely through the Nov 3, 2026 resolution date.