TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
≥80,000
- Kalshi
≥80,000 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 17, 11:12 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks voter engagement in a specific congressional district during a party primary election. It measures whether participation reaches various participation thresholds, reflecting public interest and mobilization efforts. The outcome depends entirely on the certified vote tallies after all ballots are counted and validated.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the official certified total vote count for all candidates in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary, including certified write-in votes. The relevant threshold for each market is defined in its primary rule (≥55,000 through ≥90,000). Votes cast in other contests or on ballots where no candidate received a vote are excluded from the count. Results are determined by official certification, subject to the contract’s Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations provisions. All types of valid votes—including provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, and electronic—are counted when included in the official results. If the election is postponed but held within one year of its original scheduled date, the contract remains valid. If the election is postponed beyond one year or canceled before voting is fully conducted, all contracts resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds represent a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Polls capture a snapshot of stated intentions, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, turnout modeling, and the inherent biases present in both polling and prediction markets. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different voter turnout ranges in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. The current price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official voter turnout data for the New Hampshire Democratic primary is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of votes cast in the primary election, as reported by the New Hampshire Secretary of State or another authoritative source. The specific turnout range that corresponds to the winning outcome will determine which contracts pay out to contract holders.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major shifts in polling data, endorsements from influential figures, or unexpected changes in campaign strategy could all impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news related to voter registration deadlines, early voting trends, or potential challenges to the voting process could also influence the market. Finally, broader political events or economic news that affect voter enthusiasm or turnout could also play a role in shaping the odds for this market.
