TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Stefany Shaheen, ≥12%
- Kalshi
Stefany Shaheen, ≥12% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 17, 11:09 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the competitive strength of Stefany Shaheen in a primary election, focusing on how significantly she outperforms her nearest rival. The outcome depends on the difference in vote share between her and the runner-up, reflecting the level of support she garners relative to other candidates. It highlights the dynamics of voter preference within a specific electoral contest.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Stefany Shaheen achieves a specified margin of victory in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary. The margin is calculated as the difference between Shaheen's vote share and that of the candidate finishing immediately behind her, should she win; or the difference between the first-place candidate's share and Shaheen's, should she lose. If Shaheen ties for first place, the margin is zero. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold (3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, or 15%), and the market resolves to 'Yes' only if the actual margin meets or exceeds that threshold. Margins are evaluated without rounding, with each range inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. Votes for Shaheen across multiple party listings or entries are aggregated to determine her total vote share.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot of stated preferences, while this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially when considering factors like voter turnout and strategic voting. Discrepancies between the two can arise from differing methodologies and the incentives of participants—poll respondents may offer socially desirable answers, while traders in this market have financial stakes in their predictions being accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the New Hampshire-01 Democratic primary margin of victory. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time estimate of the likely result. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive prediction.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official vote count reported by the New Hampshire election authorities for the Democratic primary in the state’s 01st congressional district. The margin of victory will be calculated as the percentage point difference between the top two candidates’ vote shares. The final result will be determined by official sources and not by any subjective interpretation.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major endorsements from prominent Democrats, shifts in fundraising totals, and the release of new public opinion polls are all potential catalysts. Unexpected events, such as a candidate dropping out or a significant debate performance, could also cause substantial movement. Furthermore, any news regarding voter turnout expectations or changes to election procedures could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Monitoring these developments is key to understanding the market’s fluctuations.
