TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Maura Sullivan, ≥9%
- Kalshi
Maura Sullivan, ≥9% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 17, 11:09 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the competitive dynamics of the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary by measuring how decisively Maura Sullivan performs against her nearest rival. The outcome hinges on the size of her victory margin relative to specific thresholds. These thresholds help gauge whether her win is narrowly contested or overwhelmingly dominant.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Maura Sullivan achieves a margin of victory of at least 3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, or 15% in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference between Maura Sullivan's vote share and that of the candidate finishing immediately behind her if she wins, or the vote share of the top finisher if she loses. A tie for first place results in a margin of 0. Each threshold is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the margin percentage. If Maura Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, all votes for her are summed together to determine her total vote share. The market resolves to Yes for any threshold that is met or exceeded by her margin of victory.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a nuanced view compared to simple polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific time, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals trading on Kalshi. This can lead to differences, as traders may incorporate factors not fully captured in polls, such as voter turnout models, fundraising data, or qualitative assessments of candidate performance. Discrepancies between the market and polls can signal areas where the market perceives information that isn’t reflected in traditional surveys.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the New Hampshire-01 Democratic primary margin of victory. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The platform facilitates this process, ensuring a transparent and efficient marketplace for predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the New Hampshire-01 Democratic primary are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory reported by relevant election authorities. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market, reflecting whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome. The platform ensures a clear and transparent resolution process based on publicly available data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected developments in candidate campaigns could all shift trader sentiment. Debates and public appearances, particularly if they generate substantial media coverage, are also likely to move the market. Additionally, any shifts in polling data, especially if they indicate a change in voter preferences, could lead to adjustments in the odds on Kalshi. Unexpected events, like a candidate dropping out, would also have a substantial impact.
