TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
polymarket
kalshi

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Volume:
$63,465

Željka Cvijanović

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 4:26 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Željka Cvijanović

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Zeljka Cvijanovic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
$267
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Siniša Karan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Branko Blanuša

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nebojša Vukanović

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nebojsa Vukanovic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61
N/A
N/A
$61
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Draško Stanivuković

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marinko Bozovic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate Q

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate S

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate U

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate W

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate Y

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This group forecasts the individual who will be elected to the Serb seat on the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2026 general election. The Presidency is a collective head of state with members representing the Bosniak, Croat, and Serb communities. This market focuses specifically on the Serb member election.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The candidate scope differs significantly between Polymarket and Kalshi, creating SKU risk and potentially differing probabilities for the same outcome.Hero tip: Prioritize trading on the candidates listed on both platforms. Be aware that Polymarket's broader candidate list introduces the possibility of a winner not covered by Kalshi, leading to a different resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers markets on a wide range of candidates (including generic 'Candidate' options) and resolves based on the official election results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba). If no listed candidate wins, the market resolves to 'Other'.
  • Kalshi: Offers markets only on specific named candidates (Marinko Bozovic, Zeljka Cvijanovic, Nebojsa Vukanovic) and resolves to 'Yes' if that candidate wins the election.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event covers three separate markets focused on the 2026 election for the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each market resolves to Yes if the named candidate—Marinko Bozovic, Zeljka Cvijanovic, or Nebojsa Vukanovic—wins the election. All markets share identical secondary rules, allowing for accelerated resolution through a consensus of media calls that declare an election winner before official certification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often incorporate information beyond traditional polls. While polls capture a snapshot of current sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will happen, factoring in events, candidate performance, and potentially private information. This can lead to discrepancies, with markets sometimes being more accurate predictors of outcomes than polls alone. The efficiency of this market means odds adjust rapidly to new information, offering a dynamic view of the election's trajectory.

Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, shifts in public opinion revealed by polling data, and unexpected candidate controversies could all cause price fluctuations. Any developments related to the political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina, such as changes in international relations or economic conditions, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, significant campaign events, debates, and media coverage will likely contribute to shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.