TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Darline Graham Nordone
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Darline Graham Nordone - Kalshi
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Vol.
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Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 14, 2:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks who will become South Carolina's Class 2 U.S. Senator before January 4, 2027. The resolution depends on which candidate formally assumes the Senate seat first during this timeframe, whether through a permanent appointment, election, or temporary capacity.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate first formally holds the position of Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before January 4, 2027. For resolution purposes, assuming the position in any capacity—whether permanent, acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, or pro tempore—is treated equivalently. The first subject to formally hold the position after market issuance determines the resolution outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional polling or analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different incentives. Traders in this market have financial skin in the game, which can make odds more responsive to breaking news and ground-level shifts than published polls. Analyst models typically update on a slower cadence and may lag real-time sentiment. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published forecasts from political analysts and pollsters can reveal where the market is pricing in information that conventional models have not yet fully absorbed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each candidate outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief about that candidate's probability of winning. As new trades execute, prices adjust in real time. Bid-ask spreads tighten or widen based on trading volume and conviction, so periods of high activity typically offer tighter pricing than quieter windows.
This market resolves around Jan 11, 2027, once the election outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by the official election result for the U.S. Senate seat from South Carolina. Resolution hinges on which candidate receives the most votes and is declared the winner by state election authorities. Traders should monitor official announcements and news coverage as the date approaches to understand how the market may react to late-breaking developments.
Major catalysts include candidate announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent political figures, and shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations. Economic data, national political developments, and campaign spending announcements can also shift trader sentiment. Polling releases—especially those showing significant movement—often trigger repricing. Media coverage of scandals, policy positions, or candidate viability can swing odds sharply. Closer to Jan 11, 2027, early voting results and final pre-election surveys typically drive the most volatile trading activity.
