TOTAL VOLUME:

$138.4b

24H VOL:

$96,535,358

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,495,670,182

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,525,921,801

457,804

Markets across

34,744

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,812

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Total volume:
$4,932,461
Volume 24h:
$23,780
7%
Liquidity:
$1,008,453
21%
Open interest:
$17,497
6%

Luca Niculescu

 - Kalshi

Luca Niculescu - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2045

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% | APY: 2% 6660 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luca Niculescu

Trade
57%
Yes 70¢No 99¢
69¢
N/A
$46
0%
N/A
$46
18y 3mo
active
polymarket

Person O

Trade
46%
13%
Yes 47.2¢No 55¢
2.2¢
$49,242
$134,897
12%
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Alexandru Nazare

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
N/A
$11,530
9%
25%
$3,245
18y 3mo
active
predict

Alexandru Nazare

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 12.9¢No 92.9¢
5.8¢
$66,796
$20,245
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.5%
Yes 15¢No 88.9¢
Avg: 3.9¢Max: 5.8¢
polymarket

Person E

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$34,170
$409,636
0.09%
12%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
kalshi

Sorin Grindeanu

Trade
20%
Yes 22¢No 84¢
6¢
N/A
$21,817
0%
5%
$2,621
18y 3mo
active
polymarket

Sorin Grindeanu

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 9.4¢No 91.7¢
1.1¢
$36,386
$621,931
0.52%
10%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
predict

Sorin Grindeanu

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.2%
Yes 15.7¢No 87.9¢
Avg: 35.5¢Max: 99.4¢
kalshi

Eugen Tomac

Trade
8%
Yes 10¢No 94¢
4¢
N/A
$6,194
0%
8%
$2,019
18y 3mo
active
predict

Eugen Tomac

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8%
Yes 10¢No 94¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Siegfried Mureșan

Trade
5%
Yes 61¢No 99¢
60¢
N/A
$10
0%
0%
N/A
18y 3mo
active
predict

Siegfried Mureșan

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5%
Yes 61¢No 99¢
Avg: 60¢Max: 60¢
kalshi

Șerban Matei

Trade
4%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
6¢
N/A
$1,824
0%
0%
$1,229
18y 3mo
active
predict

Șerban Matei

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
Avg: 6¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

Person L

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.6¢
0.4¢
$27,281
$350,290
0.03%
12%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
kalshi

George Simion

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$1,498
0%
0%
$847
18y 3mo
active
polymarket

George Simion

Trade
2%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
0.1¢
$21,337
$75,986
0.51%
13%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
predict

George Simion

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.6%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

Person F

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.8¢
0.7¢
$21,045
$98,598
0%
28%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Ilie Bolojan

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.8¢
0.6¢
$20,471
$239,049
0%
7%
N/A
2mo 3w 2d
active
predict

Ilie Bolojan

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

Person I

Trade
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.7¢
2.1¢
$23,392
$102,187
0%
14%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
kalshi

Radu Burnete

Trade
1%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$472
0%
0%
$202
18y 3mo
active
predict

Radu Burnete

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

Person D

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.5¢
0.6¢
$20,680
$98,647
0%
13%
N/A
1y 2mo 3w
active
Total markets: 25 of 104

Intro

This market tracks the identity of the next Prime Minister of Romania. Currently, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict traders assign a 57.0% probability to Luca Niculescu assuming the role. This aggregated view combines data from these platforms and will resolve based on the official appointment of a Prime Minister by the President of Romania and subsequent parliamentary vote of confidence, with official information from the Government of Romania serving as the primary source. Keep an eye on the parliamentary vote following the presidential appointment, as that will determine the outcome before the resolution date of January 1, 2045.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms differ in the list of potential Prime Ministers, creating scope divergence and increasing the risk of markets resolving to candidates not available on all platforms.Hero tip: Prioritize markets for candidates listed on multiple platforms. Avoid markets for candidates exclusive to a single platform due to higher resolution uncertainty.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers markets for a very extensive list of potential candidates, including generic 'Person' placeholders (A-Z), suggesting a broad, open-ended scope. Resolves to the first new person to hold the office.
  • Kalshi: Offers markets for a specific, curated list of named candidates. Resolves to the first new person to hold the office.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Mugur Isărescu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Mircea Geoană, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Anca Dragu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Lucian Isar, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Cătălin Predoiu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Sorin Grindeanu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is George Simion, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Nicolae Ciucă, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Marcel Ciolacu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Alexandru Rafila, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Sebastian Burduja, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Ionuț Dumitru, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Elena Lasconi, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Cătălin Drulă, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Vasile Dîncu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Dacian Cioloș, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Emil Boc, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Dominic Fritz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Raluca Turcan, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Lucian Croitoru, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Delia Velculescu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Șerban Matei, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Radu Burnete, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Victor Ponta, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Eugen Tomac, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Alexandru Nazare, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the likelihood of various individuals becoming the next Prime Minister of Romania. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the Romanian Prime Minister market has a total volume of $4,932,461 with $21,198 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see where the crowd believes the most probability lies and how that perception is evolving. We present a unified view of this event, combining data from multiple sources.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or inaccurate sampling, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polls can vary significantly depending on the event and the availability of information, but often prediction markets are more accurate, especially closer to the event.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Person O be the next Prime Minister of Romania? at 46.1%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? at 57.0%. These differences highlight the value of aggregating data across multiple markets to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2045, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which individual is officially appointed as the Prime Minister of Romania, as confirmed by official government announcements and widely reported by reputable news sources. The market will settle to 100% for the individual who assumes the office, and 0% for all other potential candidates. We rely on publicly available information to determine the outcome of this market.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, shifts in party alliances, or unexpected resignations of current political figures would likely cause price fluctuations. Economic developments, such as significant changes in Romania’s economic outlook, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any public statements or policy proposals from potential candidates could move the market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions. Any major geopolitical events impacting Romania’s stability could also play a role in shifting probabilities within this market.