TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 4:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about the timing and details of the next OpenAI GPT Sol release. While analysts may offer detailed timelines or feature predictions based on technical roadmaps, prediction market prices capture a broader, real-time consensus that can shift quickly with new rumors, tech demos, or competitive announcements.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will depend on official announcements from OpenAI regarding the release date, naming, and public availability of the next GPT Sol model, and will be settled based on widely reported facts.
Key signals that could shift this market include official OpenAI developer updates, leaked timelines from trusted sources, major competitor announcements affecting AI model roadmaps, and significant technical breakthroughs that accelerate or delay development. Each new hint about release timing or features may cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities.