TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?
polymarket

Will Muse Wonder (1.1+) be released?

Oct 12, 2026, 5:01 PM EST - Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,483
Volume 24h:
$68
69%
Liquidity:
$747
5%
Open interest:
$948N/A

January 31

 - Polymarket

January 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?

70%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 70% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% | APY: 136% Low liquidity 99 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

January 31

Trade
70%
2%
Yes 79¢No 34¢
13¢
$301
$1,304
5%
233%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 50¢No 52¢
2¢
$446
$1,179
0%
502%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Wonder" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include "Wonder," such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Wonder" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include "Wonder," such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the next Muse album release tracks the probabilities associated with various record labels being credited as the release’s publisher. You'll find a dynamic display of the current odds, reflecting what traders believe is most likely to happen. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $68. Total volume for this market is $2,483, indicating the level of interest in predicting which label will release the next album from Muse.

Currently, assessing how prediction market odds align with analyst forecasts for the next Muse album release requires comparing this market’s probabilities to external sources. While analysts often speculate on release dates and potential collaborators, this market focuses specifically on the publisher. It's important to note that analysts’ predictions aren’t always quantifiable like the probabilities displayed here, making a direct comparison challenging. However, observing discrepancies between the two can offer insights into market sentiment and potential overlooked factors influencing the outcome.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the publisher of Muse’s next studio album (defined as a full-length release with at least 10 original tracks) is officially announced by the band or their representatives and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement, and any disputes will be evaluated based on widely accepted music industry sources. The market will determine which publisher is credited on the album’s official release.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Official announcements from Muse regarding recording progress, potential collaborators, or hints about the album’s direction could all influence trading activity. News about record label acquisitions or shifts in industry partnerships could also play a role. Unexpected delays in the album's production or changes in the band's management could also cause shifts in probabilities. Finally, any credible leaks or rumors regarding the publisher could move the market, though these would need to be verified to be considered in the final resolution.