TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by...?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by...?

Volume:
$5,404

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 3, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 11:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 9h 6m
Yes
polymarket

September 15

100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.3+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.3 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.1 or Muse Spark 1.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.3, such as Muse Spark 1.2 (including any open-weight re-release of it), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.3+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.3 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.1 or Muse Spark 1.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.3, such as Muse Spark 1.2 (including any open-weight re-release of it), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Meta Muse Spark release market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1,332. This visual summary helps traders monitor how market participants price the likelihood of various outcomes for the Meta Muse Spark release market, showing shifts in sentiment as new information emerges.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s current odds reflect a blend of public speculation and trader positioning. While analysts may publish their expectations based on research and trends, the market price incorporates real-time betting activity, often reacting faster to news or rumors. Traders should watch both sources for a fuller view of sentiment around the release timeline and potential contenders.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch for official announcements or verified sources that confirm which outcome occurred, at which point all contracts for that outcome will settle accordingly.