TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:06 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Sol model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Sol (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Sol model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Sol (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability that the next GPT model will debut at a score of at least 1460 by Jun 30, 2027. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts which express uncertainty regarding the timeline for such a significant advancement. While some experts predict a rapid progression of AI capabilities, others anticipate a more gradual development cycle. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of informed speculation, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares representing a particular outcome, the higher the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, adjusting in response to new information and changing perceptions about the next GPT model's release.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether OpenAI publicly announces the debut of a GPT Sol model (6.1+) with a score of at least 1460 in a text arena. The outcome will be determined by assessing publicly available information and documentation released by OpenAI, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event's occurrence.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements from OpenAI regarding their development progress, particularly any benchmarks or performance metrics related to new models, would be key catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research, or conversely, significant technical challenges, could also shift the probabilities. Furthermore, any regulatory developments or shifts in public perception surrounding AI safety and capabilities could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the market's price. Major industry conferences and publications focused on AI are also likely to move this market.