TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Science and Technology
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?
polymarket

Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?

Volume:
$56,793

September 2

 - Polymarket

September 2 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 1:46 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 2

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 4

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,523
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 3

0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No release by September 15

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to September 1

0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 15

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 11

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 7

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 5

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 10

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 6

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 13

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 14

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 9

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 12

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 8

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Gemini Flash Model release market shows real-time odds, price changes over time, and 24-hour volume on Polymarket. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market activity for this specific prediction, allowing users to monitor how expectations shift as new information emerges about the timeline for the next Gemini Flash Model version.

Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may incorporate longer-term roadmaps and corporate statements, while traders in this market react quickly to rumors, tech announcements, and competitive moves. The gap between these two can widen when new information surfaces, making this market a live barometer of shifting beliefs.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the release date. The current top outcome’s implied probability reflects the collective bet of participants. Volume of $41,451 over the last day shows how actively the market is trading, and price movements often follow tech news or official updates from the company.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact date will be determined by an official announcement or software release that matches the market’s defined criteria, after which the market settles automatically based on that verified information.

Key signals that could shift this market include official announcements from the company, major software demos, competitor releases, or regulatory updates affecting the timeline. Any public statement hinting at delays, accelerated plans, or beta testing schedules can also cause rapid price changes as traders reassess the likelihood of different release dates.