TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
polymarket

When will Fable 5.2+ be released?

Oct 2, 2026, 6:15 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$81,188
Volume 24h:
$17,646
15%
Liquidity:
$41,784
10%
Open interest:
$11,877N/A

No release by October 31

 - Polymarket

No release by October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 16d:23h:24m

Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?

18%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 19.6¢ buys you 510 shares | Odds: 18% Total Payout: $510 | Net Profit: $410 Multiplier: 5.10x | ROI: 410% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by October 31

Trade
18%
9%
Yes 19.6¢No 83¢
2.6¢
$4,634
$32,963
12%
2,111%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

October 21

Trade
17%
20%
Yes 20.5¢No 87.2¢
7.7¢
$1,171
$1,662
10%
125%
N/A
6d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 22

Trade
14%
13%
Yes 17.7¢No 89.3¢
7¢
$1,396
$1,913
15%
761%
N/A
1w 23h
active
polymarket

October 20

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11.2¢No 89.9¢
1.1¢
$4,219
$4,514
40%
1,741%
N/A
5d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 15

Trade
10%
4%
Yes 12.4¢No 91.8¢
4.2¢
$3,614
$5,415
54%
263%
N/A
23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 16

Trade
9%
3%
Yes 9.3¢No 91.3¢
0.6¢
$6,778
$5,666
32%
355%
N/A
1d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 19

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 5.9¢No 99.3¢
5.2¢
$1,039
$2,483
4%
210%
N/A
4d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 17

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 5.4¢No 99.7¢
5.1¢
$1,348
$750
59%
1,978%
N/A
2d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 18

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
$1,144
$937
75%
871%
N/A
3d 23h 24m
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.8¢
2.7¢
$1,397
$204
18%
59%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

October 29

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.9¢
2.4¢
$1,572
$2,448
1%
203%
N/A
2w 23h
active
polymarket

October 27

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$1,363
$1,527
2%
66%
N/A
1w 5d 23h
active
polymarket

October 28

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$1,447
$1,233
3%
376%
N/A
1w 6d 23h
active
polymarket

October 24

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$1,180
$692
0%
46%
N/A
1w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

October 30

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$952
$205
0%
60%
N/A
2w 1d 23h
active
polymarket

October 23

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$1,141
$843
43%
371%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
polymarket

October 25

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$1,587
$450
0%
36%
N/A
1w 3d 23h
active
polymarket

October 14

Trade
0%
15%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$4,177
$5,517
174%
672%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
disputed
polymarket

October 26

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,625
$2,105
0%
172%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
polymarket

October 8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 13

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 7

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 4

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 12

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Fable model release market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $13,453. Users can see how the implied probability of different release dates changes over time, providing insight into market sentiment. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, which is currently $81,188. This information helps traders understand market activity and make informed decisions about their predictions regarding when the next version of the Fable model will be released.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of many traders regarding the release date of the Fable model. While analyst forecasts often provide specific timelines based on technical assessments, this market incorporates a broader range of information and potential disruptions. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of the development process, offering a more nuanced understanding of the likely release timeframe.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different release dates. The price of each share reflects the implied probability of that specific date being the actual release date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to new information and changing expectations surrounding the Fable model's development and release schedule.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the release date of the Fable model version 5.2+ is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official announcement from the Fable team regarding the release date. Traders should monitor official Fable channels for updates and announcements as the resolution date approaches. The resolution will reflect the date on which the model is publicly available and meets the specified version criteria.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Official announcements from the Fable team regarding development progress, delays, or specific release targets would be major catalysts. Unexpected technical challenges or breakthroughs in the model's development could also shift expectations. Furthermore, broader trends in the AI landscape, such as competitor releases or regulatory changes, might influence market sentiment. Any news impacting the perceived timeline or feasibility of the Fable model release could lead to substantial changes in trading activity and price movements within this market.