TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
predict

Will a Fable model (5.2+) be released?

Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$36,495
Volume 24h:
$1,090
94%
Liquidity:
$78,514
134%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

December 31

 - Predict

December 31 - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 31% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

December 31

Trade
94%
1%
Yes 95¢No 8¢
3¢
$77,492
$19,161
5%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
predict

October 31

Trade
26%
19%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
3¢
$817
$7,563
3%
8,570%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
predict

October 24

Trade
1%
6%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$5
$8,714
0%
4,342%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
predict

October 21

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$156
$958
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
No
predict

October 17

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$44
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
No
predict

October 15

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
No
predict

October 16

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the next Fable model release tracks the implied probability of different companies being the first to release a model with 5.2+ parameters. You’ll find the current odds for each potential releaser, as well as a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The current 24-hour volume is also displayed, indicating how much trading activity this market is experiencing. Total volume for this market is $26,724, with $1,090 traded in the last 24 hours.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not consistently available in a quantifiable format for this specific event. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict often provides a different perspective than individual expert opinions. This market reflects real-money incentives, which can lead to predictions that diverge from, or converge with, those made by analysts depending on available information and perceived risk. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both market prices and analyst views can change over time.

On Predict, this market is priced using a logarithmic scaling system, where higher prices represent lower probabilities and vice versa. Traders buy and sell contracts on each potential outcome, and these transactions determine the current price. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s assessment of the likelihood of each company releasing the next Fable model. This is a continuous process, with prices constantly adjusting based on new information and trader sentiment. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately assess probabilities and profit from discrepancies.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the release of a Fable model with 5.2+ parameters is verifiable from credible public reporting. The company that first publicly releases a model meeting this specification will be considered the winner. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and documentation regarding the model’s specifications, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor news and announcements from leading AI companies as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements from companies regarding their AI development progress, particularly relating to model size and capabilities, would be key catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research or changes in the competitive landscape could also shift probabilities. Major publications or reports detailing the progress of different AI initiatives could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any official statements from Fable regarding their release timeline or specifications would likely cause a substantial movement in this market.