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420,368

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4,484

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Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released by...?
polymarket

Will Claude Haiku be released by December 31, 2026?

Volume:
$40,121

October 7

 - Polymarket

October 7 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 4:11 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 7

View
100%
96%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the next Claude Haiku release tracks the current odds of various outcomes, represented as probabilities. You can also view the price history of this market, showing how the implied probability has changed over time. The 24-hour volume, currently $15,657, indicates the amount of trading activity, while the total volume traded to date is $40,121. This provides a sense of market interest and confidence in the predictions surrounding the timing of the next Claude Haiku model release. The dashboard helps visualize how traders are assessing the likelihood of different release timelines.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a roughly 67% probability that the next Claude Haiku model will be released by December 31, 2026. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on company statements and projected development timelines. While analysts may offer specific dates, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential unforeseen delays. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent probabilistic views, while analyst forecasts can be more deterministic. Comparing them offers a valuable perspective on the uncertainty surrounding this event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will increase its price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants regarding the next Claude Haiku release.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the release date of the next Claude Haiku model is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on an official announcement from Anthropic regarding the availability of the new model. This market will determine whether the release occurred before or after December 31, 2026, based on the publicly stated release date. Any subsequent updates or revisions to the release date will not affect the resolution of this market, which will be based on the initial announcement.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding development progress, potential delays, or release timelines would be major catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research, or conversely, significant technical challenges, could also shift trader sentiment. News regarding competitive AI models from other companies could influence expectations for Anthropic's release schedule. Finally, any leaks or credible rumors about the release date, even if unofficial, could cause substantial price movement in this market as traders react to the new information.