TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Gregg Hull, 9-12%
- Kalshi
Gregg Hull, 9-12% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 28, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate will compete in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary, with the outcome determined by the margin of victory achieved by that candidate or a competing candidate in the race.
Kalshi
Margin of victory is calculated differently based on the margin type specified. For percentage points, the margin equals the candidate's vote percentage minus the runner-up's vote percentage if they win, or the leader's percentage if they lose. For raw votes, the margin is the candidate's total votes minus the runner-up's total votes (or the leader's if they lose). For electoral votes, the margin is the candidate's electoral votes minus the second-place finisher's (or first-place if they lose). Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; no rounding is applied. If a candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only participant, the margin is 100 percentage points or total votes cast. Votes for the same person listed multiple times or under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking information. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate expectations about the actual primary outcome, including late-breaking campaign developments and turnout dynamics. Comparing the implied margin from Kalshi to recent New Mexico Republican primary polls can reveal whether traders expect the race to tighten, widen, or remain stable relative to survey data.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the New Mexico Republican Governor primary margin is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the expected victory margin between the top two Republican candidates. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the final settlement price determined by the actual margin on election day. The current price reflects the collective belief of market participants about how decisively the Republican nominee will win over the second-place finisher in the primary.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027, following the New Mexico Republican Governor primary election. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory between the first-place and second-place finishers in the Republican primary. The outcome is based on certified election results from the New Mexico Secretary of State, ensuring that the market settles on the actual, verified vote differential rather than preliminary or unofficial counts.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from prominent New Mexico Republicans, campaign spending announcements, debate performances, and shifts in voter registration or early-voting data. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or consolidations could dramatically alter the margin outlook. National Republican Party attention or intervention, local economic developments, and turnout-modeling updates from campaigns may also shift trader expectations. Media coverage of candidate gaffes, policy positions, or electability concerns can trigger rapid repricing on Kalshi.
