TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
John Sununu, ≥40%
- Kalshi
John Sununu, ≥40% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 17, 11:13 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
John Sununu is running in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary election scheduled for September 8, 2026. These markets track the margin of victory he achieves in that primary contest, with different markets corresponding to different threshold margins.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary is calculated as the difference between his vote total and the relevant comparison candidate's vote total. If Sununu wins the primary, the margin is positive and equals his votes minus the second-place finisher's votes. If Sununu loses, the margin is negative and equals his votes minus the first-place finisher's votes. A tie for first place results in a margin of zero, and an uncontested race where Sununu is the only candidate results in a margin of 100 percentage points. Votes are calculated using the margin type specified (percentage points, raw votes, or electoral votes), with no rounding applied to the final margin. If Sununu appears on the ballot under multiple parties or listings, all votes attributable to him are summed together. Each market resolves to Yes if the calculated margin falls within its specified range, inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. For example, a margin of exactly 10% resolves Yes for the ≥10% market but No for the ≥5% market if the margin falls between 5% and 10%.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polls because they incorporate trader incentives and real-money stakes. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, this market reflects ongoing assessments of which candidate will actually win and by how much. Traders continuously update their positions based on campaign developments, debate performance, and emerging data, making prediction markets a dynamic alternative lens to static survey snapshots.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different margin-of-victory ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the collective belief of market participants about the final result. Prices move as new trades occur and sentiment shifts, with tighter spreads typically indicating higher confidence in a particular outcome band.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2027, once the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary election concludes and results are verified. The outcome is determined by the official margin separating the winning candidate from the runner-up, confirmed through credible public reporting of the final vote tally. Resolution occurs after all ballots are counted and the margin falls into one of the predefined outcome ranges offered in this market.
Major catalysts include candidate endorsements, debate performances, campaign funding announcements, and shifts in voter preference data. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries can dramatically reshape expectations around the final margin. Media coverage of gaffes, policy positions, or electability concerns may also trigger sharp repricing. As election day approaches, early voting results and final polls typically drive the most significant market movements.
